On Friday night, November 21, 2025, the NBA delivers a pair of high-stakes matchups that could reshape playoff seeding conversations — but not the ones some fans thought they’d see. The Golden State Warriors host the Portland Trail Blazers at 10:00 PM ET, while the Phoenix Suns square off against the Minnesota Timberwolves at 9:00 PM ET — not against Portland, as outdated headlines might suggest. The confusion? Understandable. The Suns and Trail Blazers have been trading blows lately, but tonight’s schedule tells a different story.
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: Curry’s Experience vs. Sharpe’s Fire
The Warriors, projected as 73.62% favorites by FanDuel Sportsbook, enter this game with momentum. Their -7.5 point spread and -280 moneyline reflect confidence in their veteran core, led by 37-year-old Stephen Curry. Even at this stage of his career, Curry remains the engine of Golden State’s offense — averaging 26.8 points and 7.1 assists over his last 10 games. But the real story on the other side? Shaedon Sharpe, the 21-year-old Trail Blazers guard who’s suddenly become a scoring machine. Sharpe, the seventh overall pick in 2022, has exploded in recent weeks. He’s scored 31+ points in three of his last four games, including a season-high 36 against Dallas on November 20 — despite shooting just 12-of-32. His 22.1 points per game this season rank second on Portland, and analysts at PrizePicks project him for 24.5 tonight. The twist? He’s not just scoring — he’s forcing defenses to collapse, opening lanes for Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant. But Portland’s defense remains a mess: opponents average 123.7 points against them, and their 45.8% field goal shooting doesn’t mask their inability to close out games.Suns vs. Timberwolves: A Battle of Contrasts
While the Warriors-Blazers game draws national attention, the Suns-Timberwolves clash might be the more intriguing matchup. The Timberwolves, at 54.35% win probability and -3.5 favorites, have the edge on paper. But here’s the catch: Minnesota is 0-5 against teams with winning records this season. And Phoenix? They’re 6-2 at home with a +12.9 net rating — the kind of team that thrives when the crowd’s loud and the refs let them play. Without Grayson Allen (quadriceps injury), the Suns’ three-point shooting takes a hit. Allen, who averages 18.5 points and shoots 44.7% from deep, was their most reliable outside threat. His absence leaves Devin Booker isolated — and Booker’s been cold. In his last five games, he’s made just 3-of-24 from three-point range. That’s not a slump. It’s a crisis. But Booker’s still averaging 28.4 points league-wide, and he doesn’t need to shoot threes to dominate. He attacks the rim, draws fouls, and creates for others. Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards, 23, is playing point guard out of necessity — not because he’s a natural playmaker. He’s averaging 27.3 points and 5.8 assists, but his 5.1 turnovers per game are a liability. The Suns, who force 16.7 opponent turnovers per game (sixth in the NBA), will pounce. And don’t sleep on Phoenix’s offensive rebounding. They rank fourth in the league at 12.9 per game. Minnesota’s defense, especially on the glass, is porous — they allow 44.6 rebounds per contest.
Betting Insights: Why Experts Are Betting Against the Odds
The betting markets are split, but the smart money isn’t always on the favorite. Action Network’s Bet Labs system recommends Suns +3.5 (-110), citing their "Home Rebounds Trends" model — which has correctly predicted 72% of similar home underdog performances this season. Meanwhile, Sports Insights Network (VSIN) is all in on Suns +5.5 (-138), noting Minnesota’s 3.4 net rating on the road versus Phoenix’s +12.9 at home. For Warriors fans, the -7.5 line looks risky. Portland’s been outscoring teams by 1.7 points per 100 possessions over their last 10 games — not dominant, but not helpless. And Golden State’s defense has slipped: they’ve allowed 118.9 points per game in November. If Curry gets trapped in isolation, and Klay Thompson’s off, this could get ugly fast. But if the Warriors get early stops? They’ll run Portland ragged.What This Means for the West Race
The Western Conference is a mess. The Suns are clinging to the 6th seed, the Trail Blazers are 11th, and the Timberwolves are fighting for 4th. A win tonight could vault Phoenix into the play-in conversation. A loss? They’ll need to win five of their next six just to stay relevant. For Portland, a win over Golden State would be their biggest of the season — a statement that they’re not just rebuilding, they’re re-emerging. And let’s not forget the ripple effect. If the Warriors win, they’ll jump into the top 5 in the West. If they lose? Questions will swirl about their depth and whether Curry can carry them through the playoffs. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s win streak over lower-tier teams doesn’t mean much — but if they beat Phoenix on the road, it changes how we view their ceiling.
What’s Next?
Saturday, November 22, brings more chaos: the Thunder host the Jazz as 16.5-point favorites, the Rockets take on the Nuggets, and the Bulls meet the Heat. But Friday’s games will echo longer. The Suns’ identity is on the line. The Trail Blazers’ future hinges on Sharpe’s development. And Curry? He’s playing like a man who knows this might be his last shot at a title.Frequently Asked Questions
Why are the Suns playing the Timberwolves and not the Trail Blazers tonight?
The confusion stems from recent historical matchups — the Suns and Trail Blazers have played twice in the last month, with Portland winning both. But the NBA schedule is fixed, and tonight’s game was set weeks ago. The Suns’ actual opponent on November 21, 2025, is Minnesota, as confirmed by official NBA schedules and FanDuel’s odds. Historical data doesn’t dictate current matchups.
How does Grayson Allen’s injury impact the Suns’ chances?
Allen’s absence is a major blow. He shoots 44.7% from three, the highest on the team among regular rotation players. With him out, the Suns’ three-point percentage drops from 38.2% to around 35.5%, and spacing collapses. Devin Booker has to carry more offensive load, and opponents can sag off shooters, making drives harder. His 42-point game against New Orleans on November 10 highlights what they’re missing.
Is Shaedon Sharpe a legitimate NBA star now?
He’s trending that way. At 21, Sharpe has averaged 22.1 points this season and scored 31+ in three of his last four games. His 36-point outburst against Dallas came despite inefficient shooting — meaning he’s getting to the rim, drawing fouls, and creating his own shot. If he improves his 38.2% field goal percentage, he could be an All-Star candidate by next season. He’s the future of Portland’s backcourt.
Why are experts picking the Suns as underdogs but still recommending them?
Because the market is undervaluing Phoenix’s home strength. They’re 6-2 at home with a +12.9 net rating, while Minnesota is 1-6 on the road against winning teams. Bet Labs and VSIN’s models show home teams with strong rebounding and turnover-forcing defenses — like the Suns — often cover spreads even when they’re not favored. The Timberwolves’ poor road defense makes this a perfect trap for bettors who only look at the moneyline.
What’s the key to a Warriors win tonight?
Early defensive stops. If Golden State can force Portland into 15+ turnovers and limit Sharpe’s catch-and-shoot opportunities, they’ll control the pace. Curry needs to avoid isolation-heavy possessions and find Klay Thompson or Jonathan Kuminga for open threes. Portland’s defense ranks 25th in opponent three-point percentage — if the Warriors hit 14+ threes, they win.
Could Anthony Edwards’ point guard role backfire against the Suns?
Absolutely. Edwards isn’t a natural playmaker — he averages 5.1 turnovers per game. Phoenix forces the sixth-most turnovers in the league. If the Suns’ guards, like Jalen Smith or Jalen Suggs, can bait him into bad passes and trap him on pick-and-rolls, Minnesota’s offense will stall. Edwards is explosive, but he’s also predictable. The Suns know how to exploit that.
